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China emerging EV market is booming, but under Reshuffle

On this year’s China National Day, Oct. 1st, the first day for announcement of new car handover quantities in September, Wang Xing, founder of Meituan, a Grubhub like company, and an investor in Lixiang Electric Vehicle (EV), improvised a comment on the sales performance of the EVs in his Wechat friend circle: “In the past two to three decades, the leader of the Chinese premium high-end car market has been the German BBA (BMW, BENZ, AUDI), but the next two to three years will depend on ‘LiWeiHua'(Lixiang, Weilai, Huawei, new Chinese EV companies),. No matter which one wins, China will win.”

In fact, as the major new EV brands have announced their September and third quarter sales, the industry competition has intensified while the reshuffling effect between different brands has emerged.

Among them, BYD, which sold more cars for two consecutive quarters than Tesla, is expected to sit on the throne of the world’s first this year. While the new EV makers are facing the car giant’s “pro-son” competition.

Under the big reshuffle, the old players fall behind, new players to rebound, the industry market is not yet determined, especially under the new EV makers fluctuating production capacity, the whole market situation becomes more confusing.

1, Ranking keeps changing: the numbers

The Giants:

The Mid-Class EV Brands:

The Price Competitive Brands

Giving regard to Chinese government policy and the changing market, the battle for the Chinese EV industry is in full swing, but the market has not yet completed its final screening as the handover amount is fluctuating. Standing in the last quarter of 2022, when Xiaomi car has not yet started mass production, Huawei has not yet built a car under its name, and Apple’s car has not yet made an official announcement, the chances for the later comers become smaller and smaller.

02, Tesla is under high pressure

In the second quarter of this year, when BYD overtook Tesla for the first time as the world’s No. 1 electric vehicle supplier, many analysts attributed this primarily to production capacity limitations caused by Covid-19 controls in Shanghai. But the recently announced third quarter sales further validate BYD’s growth potential, while Tesla blamed logistical constraints for less-than-expected deliveries.

The day after Tesla’s deliveries were announced on Oct. 3, U.S. time, its shares plunged more than 8 percent. Its third-quarter car deliveries of 343,800 units fell short of market expectations of 357,900 units, and by the close of trading on Friday, Oct. 7, Tesla had accumulated a three-day decline of about 16 percent, its worst one-week performance since March 2020.

Since the global popularity of electric vehicles began, Tesla has almost always sat at the top, but in the second quarter of this year, the market situation began to change, BYD overtook Tesla for the first time to become the world’s number one electric car manufacturer, and after entering the third quarter, the gap between the two is rapidly expanding.

BYD’s development is really amazing. Just two years ago, its annual sales were only 190,000 units, while Tesla’s sales were up to 500,000 units, BYD is less than half of Tesla’s sales. In year 2021, BYD sales tripled to 604,000 units, Tesla sales also grew to 936,000 units, BYD and Tesla still have a gap, but it has reached 2/3 of Tesla’s sales. After 2022, BYD quickly narrowed the gap with Tesla, and in the second quarter successfully topped, and now the sales gap between the two is further widened.

It may seem unexpected, but it actually makes sense.

This has a lot to do with China’s new energy vehicle sales market explosion, data show that the first half of this year, global sales of new energy vehicles is more than 4.22 million units, of which China’s sales is up to 2.6 million units, accounting for more than 60%.

A significant problem for Tesla is that it has limited models. There are totally 4 models on sale on Tesla offical website: model 3, model Y, model X, model S. The model 3 and model Y accounted for a whopping 95% of the 343,800 electric vehicles sold in the third quarter of this year, which were released in 2016 and 2019, respectively.

In comparison, BYD’s product line is much wider, with different cars in its Dynasty series and Ocean series covering different prices from 100,000 to 300,000 yuan (USD13,906-USD41,718), with the cheapest Yuan Pro starting at less than 100,000 yuan (USD13,906), while Han and Tang models are priced upwards to more than 300,000 yuan (USD41,718).

In addition, Tesla’s main use of ternary lithium batteries are said to be not safe enough, repeated safety accidents seems to have reduced consumer trust, especially not long ago Lin Zhiying, a Taiwan Star, had an accident while driving Tesla. “Now who dares to buy a Tesla, I always try to keep a safe distance with Tesla on the road.” A new energy taxi driver spat.

On 2022 World Power Battery Conference, Professor Sun Jinhua from the University of Science and Technology of China has revealed a set of data: In year 2021, the national electric vehicle fire accidents is more than 3,000 cases, of which 60% were caused by ternary lithium battery models, while only 5% of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

On the other hand, BYD has been making a lot of moves, and its ambition to compete for global new energy vehicle supremacy has been put on the table. First, in March, it officially stopped the production and sales of fuel vehicles and focused on developing BEVs (pure electric vehicles) and PHEVs, and then, just this past September, it announced its official entry into the European market, where it released three models, Han, Tang and Yuan.

According to the current sales situation, BYD is quite close to the annual sales target of 1.5 million units, and in the 4th quarter of this year, BYD is expected to hit a higher sales target.

But it should be noted that the BYD era of electric vehicles has not really arrived, in the BYD delivery of new energy vehicles, hybrid models and pure electric models are still half each, and the former is mostly considered a transitional model of the new energy era. Pure electric is the real EV.

In addition, from the point of view of profitability, Tesla is still the king of the current market. Although BYD is a cut above Tesla in overall sales, the revenue and profit level is still a gap with Tesla because the main models are basically below 300,000 yuan (USD41,718).

No doubt, for the two giants, the battle is still in the beginning stage, the further competition in the field of pure electricity will continue.

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忆古思今 | 西门庆的一泡尿和郭德纲的女人




这西门大官人席间饮酒过多,如厕时遇一男子,低头一看,甚是惊奇,连声嚷叫:Small! Too Small! 神态嚣张至极!



1, 京畿重地,乃是食肉者的天下


2, 切莫以己之长笑他人之短。尤其是在人人都在意的地方





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  • 11月9日,辉瑞与合作伙伴BioNTech联合宣布:根据3期临床研究的外部独立数据监测委员会(DMC)于2020年11月8日进行的第一次中期疗效分析,在没有新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)感染证据的受试者中,其基于mRNA的新冠疫苗BNT162b2证明了预防新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的有效性:有效率超过90%。这一数据远高于美国FDA要求的50%以上即可获批上市。双方计划在达到所需的安全里程碑后,尽快向美国FDA提交紧急使用授权(EUA)申请。
  • 美国生物科技企业莫德纳(Moderna)11月16日宣布,由该公司研发的新冠肺炎三期试验疫苗mRNA-1273有效性为94.5%。计划在未来几周内向美国申请新冠疫苗的紧急使用权,同时也向其他全球监管机构提交新冠疫苗以获得授权;
  • mRNA疫苗无成功先例,今后灭活疫苗有可能会被完全淘汰,mRNA疫苗生产太方便了

背景知识: 灭活等疫苗VS mRNA疫苗

  • 灭活疫苗,这是最传统的疫苗,包括减毒疫苗、灭活疫苗和裂解疫苗。

    • 所谓的减毒疫苗就是把病原体打残了再用;
    • 所谓的灭活疫苗就是把病原体打死了再用;
    • 所谓的裂解疫苗就是把病原体碎尸万段后再用。
    • 虽然经过了各种特殊的灭活处理,导致其致病性下降或丧失,但仍保持了病毒全部或部分免疫原性,接种后病毒抗原可以刺激机体产生免疫应答,达到保护作用。
    • 这种类型的疫苗,工艺制作较为简单,是传统的疫苗制备方式。但是由于对新冠病毒的致病机理和免疫学机制的研究尚不深入,所以灭活后的疫苗仍然可能携带有害成分;而且目前活病毒培养要求在P3级生物安全条件下进行,产能会受到限制。
  • 核酸疫苗,包括DNA疫苗和mRNA疫苗。

    • DNA疫苗:把病原体的蛋蛋直接活生生打入人体。灭活疫苗可以说是最[笨]的方法,但也可以说是作为兜底的策略,灭活疫苗的缺点是接种次数较多(通常需要2~3剂),但灭活疫苗的技术是最成熟的,这也是我看好国药灭活疫苗的原因。
    • mRNA疫苗:把病原体的小蝌蚪原细胞活生生打入人体。mRNA(信使RNA)就像一个携带着细胞用来合成不同蛋白质的模板。在人类细胞内,根据DNA内的遗传信息制造蛋白质需要两个主要步骤。首先,在细胞核中,DNA编码的信息转录到mRNA上。mRNA从细胞核移动至细胞质,核糖体将其翻译成蛋白质,从而发挥对细胞和组织的功能。与传统疫苗直接引入抗原蛋白刺激宿主免疫应答不同,mRNA疫苗引入编码疾病特异性抗原的mRNA,利用宿主细胞的蛋白质合成机制产生抗原,从而触发免疫应答。在体内,这些外来抗原的产生为免疫系统识别和记忆这种病毒抗原做好了准备,可以抵御未来由相同抗原引起的病毒感染。

    • mRNA疫苗最大的优点就是可以快速制备,安全性较好。这种疫苗的主要缺点,是在运输递送过程中容易出现降解而失效,所以防止降解是关键。

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1, “什么是RCEP”

全面区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(英语:Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,简称:RCEP),是由东南亚国家联盟十国发起,由中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等与东盟有自由贸易协议的六国共同参加,共计16个国家所构成的高级自由贸易协定。此协议也向其他外部经济体开放,比如中亚国家、南亚及大洋洲其他国家。2019年11月4日,谈判完成,但印度中途退出。2020年11月15日,15个RCEP缔约方正式签署协议。



2, “为什么RCEP引人关注?”


RCEP重要性 | 图片来源:环球时报 | 翻译整理:大禹(原资料为英文)

3, “RCEP的内容?”

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Fight against the UNQUALIFIED PPEs

I am a Chinese!

To Chinese: it is not ashamed to admit problems, it is shameful to hide and do the wrong thing.
To non-Chinese: Chinese are also human beings, there are good people and bad people, same as in your country.

It is a hard year for apparel business (my main business, worked in this field for 20 years, up to now), to keep business running, I have been supplying PPEs to my clients and therefore, have connections with various PPE suppliers.

To learn more about the PPEs, I have joined different wechat groups. Below is a screenshot from one group, the price is surely very very low:

The non-Chinese would say: Chinese are horrible! But, wait! Ask yourself a question: why the unqualified masks can sell? Who bought such masks? The Chinese bad businessman surely should be condemned and punished, the buyers should be the same.

I have read news on bad quality PPEs from China, there are complaints and claims from various countries, Canada even asked Chinese suppliers for recall. Unfortunately, no reports on punishment of importers read.

To fight against the unqualified PPEs, Chinese should have basic business ethics, buyers should focus on quality, rather than price only. Please believe that Chinese factories can always meet your target price, the quality will be surely a problem-if price is unreasonable, I also believe buyers know the fact.

PPEs are about life, Human Lives Matter!

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