Weekly Reading Summary: Nov.16-Nov.22, 2020

  • 没有什么川粉,挺他只是想看他揍那些我想揍又不敢揍的人。 —网易网友
  • 为什么许多人对新冠病毒在全世界造成的大量死亡感到麻木,因为对于我们大多数人来说,这场疫情的最惨痛经历是目击不到的。 -BBC

  • 我来到推特以后,才发现不管怎么沟通,一半人总是会讨厌另一半人。 -迈克尔·阿灵顿 (TechCrunch 创始人)

  • 商人在理论上不如经济学教授,但是他的观念往往有事实根据,并且也肯用全部的意识使其实现;反之,经济学教授对于现实的观念往往不正确,他的理论很多,但是缺乏实现的能力和勇气。结果,发财的都是商人,而不是教授。 – 德国二战元帅隆美尔

  • 随着消费者对信息的了解越来越容易、越来越多,企业应该将大量的精力、注意力和金钱投入到构建优质的产品或服务中,而将更少的精力投入到产品或服务的营销中。- 杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)

  • 日本和中国的经验里,老年能组团结伴照料的都是女性,而无男性。男性几乎天然不会产生独身主义想法,他们之间可以形成同生共死的战斗友情,但日常陪伴照料式的关系,几乎一天也不能维系。女性较能抵抗老年独身,而男性绝无可能。你可以看到女性主张不婚不育保平安,却看不到任何男性反对婚育。 -网文

  • The Economist Nov. 14, 2020

    • America will stop treating the European Union as a “foe” on trade, or its own forces stationed in South Korea as a protection racket.
    • For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub NINE LONG years elapsed between the isolation of the measles virus in 1954 and the licensing of a vaccine. The world waited for 20 years between early trials of a polio vaccine and the first American licence in 1955. (大禹:所以说,科技的进步,真的是造福人类的。)
    • The 2.2m Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs, as they are typically known) are feted nationally for their sacrifices. Nearly half toil in Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states as maids, drivers or hotel staff. All hotel bands in China seem to have a Filipina singer. Hong Kong has more than 150,000 OFWs and Singapore 120,000, most of them women working as domestic helpers and nannies. Central Hong Kong on a Sunday is like the Philippines writ small: a pavement map of the country’s many languages as Filipinas gather with friends from their region.In all, the diaspora sends home $30bn a year, a tenth of GDP.(大禹:菲佣是菲律宾的重要产业,甚至是支柱产业。)
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Weekly Reading Summary: Nov.09-Nov.15, 2020

认知,最重要的不是知识(knowledge),而是致知(knowing)。毕竟,我们将卓越的知识定义为由卓越的致知行为产生的任何知识。“致知决定知识”。

苹果公司不允许恶棍在电影中使用 iPhone。因此,如果您正在看一部新电影并且角色拥有 iPhone,那么他们就不是坏人,这算是剧透吗?
– 《苹果和流行文化》

那些貌似陈陋不堪的“礼“,包含着宗法亲缘,包含着思念和孝悌。那几张黄纸,那一摊烬余,可能是我们沟通阴阳,遥寄思念最好的方式。 —网文,谈祭奠烧纸

生命是一袭华美的袍,爬满了虱子。 -张爱玲

每个人都是月亮,总有一个阴暗面,从来不让人看见。 -马克-吐温

丰田公司的一个决策原则是,做决定的不是等级最高的人,而是最接近正在发生的事情的人。丰田公司认为,决策时掌握的实践知识越多,决策就会越好。 –《丰田之道》

快能力与慢能力: 美国著名投资家芒格(Charles Munger)是巴菲特的合伙人,以投资思想丰富而著称。

我想分享他的一段话,普通人应该怎么找到自己的竞争力。

如果你想成为一流的网球运动员,你很快就会发现,这是没有希望的。 但是,如果你想成为一流的水暖工,那么大部分人都可以做到。只要具有意志,坚持下去了解这个行业,精通手艺,假以时日,这是可以实现的目标。

无法成为网球明星,但是在其他领域,你可以慢慢发展自己的竞争力。这种竞争力,一部分来自你的内在因素(兴趣、学习能力、毅力、纪律性等等),另一部分来自通过工作的缓慢积累。

芒格的意思是,普通人当不了职业的网球运动员,主要原因是体育竞争力无法慢慢积累,你必须在很短的时间内(三四年?),就达到一个很高的竞技水平,这种模式更像冲刺。 但是,水暖工不需要冲刺,你只要持之以恒,水平自然就会提升。20年以后,你肯定是一个优秀的水暖工。

换句话说,体育竞争力是一种”快能力”,强调快速形成;水暖工是一种”慢能力”,有可能通过积累而获得。

“快能力”更多地取决于天赋或外部条件,所以普通人不容易成功;”慢能力”则是取决于后天的努力,可以用时间来换。

芒格建议,如果没有天赋,就尽量选择”慢能力”的行业,这样你才有机会通过日复一日的积累做到优秀。

 

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Weekly Reading Summary: Aug. 31-Sep. 06, 2020

  • The Economist August 29, 2020
    • Regimes that rule by fear, live in fear.
    • To get a release in China, movies must avoid the “three Ts” of Tiananmen, Taiwan and Tibet.
    • It is strictly enforcing rules that require co-productions to have at least one-third of their investment from Chinese partners, at least one scene shot in China and a cast that is at least one-third Chinese.
    • Foreign studios also discovered co-production. Movies made in partnership with a Chinese company qualify as domestic and are thus exempt from the quota system.
    • In 2005 China had 4,000 theatre screens, slightly more than Britain at the time. Last year it had nearly 70,000, according to Omdia, a market-research company, almost equal to America and Europe combined.
    • Until China reforms the way that hospitals are financed, even doctors with “good hearts” will face pressure to earn revenues for their department (and performance-related pay for themselves and their colleagues) by over-prescribing drugs, tests and surgical operations.
    • For years China’s priority has been shiny high-speed trains, Olympic stadiums and aircraft-carriers to awe the world. A true superpower would build a health system to match.
    • China has more people with dementia than any other country—an estimated 9.5m people (it includes Taiwan in its total).
    • Japan has the world’s oldest people, with 28% of the population aged 65 and over and 2.4m people over 90, including more than 70,000 centenarians. (In America, with a population two and a half times as big, 16% of the population are 65 or over, and there are 97,000 centenarians.)
    • Care work is undervalued, underpaid, emotionally draining and physically exhausting. Yet it is, in my view, highly skilled. It requires enormous maturity and resilience; deep wells of kindness, too.
    • The rooftop solar industry stands to benefit from a new Californian mandate that requires new homes to install panels on their roofs from this year.
    • Greater Seoul is home to half of South Korea’s population and to the vast majority of attractive jobs, schools and entertainment options.
    • Under a jeonse contract, the tenant pays the landlord a deposit of between 60% and 80% of the purchase price to live rent-free for two years.
    • No one wants to see a sudden house-price crash at a time when the economy is already suffering a pandemic-induced slowdown. The economic fallout from the virus could curtail household incomes. That might delay the economic recovery as people cut back on their spending in order to service their loans, although interest-rate cuts should provide some relief.

那些多长几岁或者某方面小有建树的人,很容易犯一个毛病:“排斥异己”,抵制与自己相左的观点和新知识,这种现象也被称为“功能性文盲”。

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者弗里德曼曾说过:“花自己的钱办自己的事,最为经济;花自己的钱给别人办事,最有效率;花别人的钱为自己办事,最为浪费;花别人的钱为别人办事,最不负责任。”

认知,最重要的不是知识(knowledge),而是致知(knowing)。毕竟,我们将卓越的知识定义为由卓越的致知行为产生的任何知识。“致知决定知识”。

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Weekly Reading Summary: Aug. 24-Aug. 30, 2020

The Economist [Fri, 21 Aug 2020]
By one Federal Reserve measure, around 2% of black families have assets worth more than $1m; over 15% of white ones do.

Xinjiang is at the heart of China’s cotton, yarn and textile industry, the world’s biggest. The region supplies 84% of the country’s cotton.

Calculations from Goldman Sachs, a bank, suggest that a 15 percentage-point rise in the share of the population that wears masks would reduce the daily growth of cases by about one percentage point. That obviates the need for lockdown measures that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP. The Economist took those calculations a step further. According to our reckoning, an American wearing a mask for a day is helping prevent a fall in GDP of $56.14. Not bad for something that you can buy for about 50 cents apiece.

有一句话很有道理:想要拥有良好的人际社交关系,那就不要跟任何人分享成功的喜悦。
人生的高光时刻,往往是平凡的一天。没几个人,期望听到你的好消息;只有自己,在心中默默响起了掌声。

华盛顿说:“我虽然对权力不感兴趣,但我无法保证其他人也是如此,所以我要用一种方法控制住权力。”三权分立由此而生。后逐渐衍生出两党。民主党共和党之间总是骂声不断,议会上常常因为分歧大打出手。但因为他们的骂声,受益的总是人民,因为他们大打出手,民众才少了更多纷争。而且一但国家受到危险,两党也会变成坚实可靠的战友。

跟随马斯克12年的助理玛莉,要求大幅调薪。马斯克对她说:”你先放两个礼拜的假吧!让我想想。”
过了两个礼拜,马斯克发现没有玛莉,他一个人也能稳妥地完成工作,就拒绝了调薪要求。
-《年资高,工作量大是谈加薪最大筹码?》

传统是延续薪火,而不是崇拜灰烬。
——古斯塔夫·马勒

当代的中国社会不再需要神话来壮胆,不需要一夜之间就醒悟的故事来激励人心,不需要瞬间成长的英雄来拯救国家… 我们只需要讲述真实历史,就足以告诉后代,这个国家是一个伟大的国家,这个国家有光明的前途。

李安:“我觉得孝顺其实是一种过时的观念,当然跟中国人讲,可能几百年还讲不过去,这是一种根深蒂固的存在。可是在我自己的思想里面,还有自己家庭生活里面。我已经不教小孩孝顺这样的东西。他们不晓得,只要爱我,彼此尊重就可以了。”希望每个人都能理解,爱和尊重比孝顺更高级。

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Weekly Reading Summary: Aug. 16-Aug. 23, 2020

 

The Economist [Fri, 07 Aug 2020]
Many students buy the university experience not just to boost their earning capacity, but also to get away from their parents, make friends and find partners.

In Australia foreign students provide a quarter of universities’ income. In Canada the tuition fees for a science degree at McGill, one of the country’s top universities, cost C$45,656 ($34,000) a year for an overseas student, compared with C$2,623 for a local.

The Economist [Fri, 14 Aug 2020]
Mr Xi’s new economic agenda is to make markets and innovation work better within tightly defined boundaries and subject to all-seeing Communist Party surveillance. It isn’t Milton Friedman, but this ruthless mix of autocracy, technology and dynamism could propel growth for years.

LAST YEAR Zotye, a carmaker, used it to tackle weak sales, and Wuliangye, a distiller, to improve the quality of its baiju; it helped Zheshang Bank to digitise its operations and catalysed the development of energy-saving technologies at China National Nuclear Power. “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” is, on the basis of these companies’ annual reports, quite the business-practice panacea.

世界变得越来越复杂,人们意识不到自己有多么无知。结果是,一群对气象学或生物学一窍不通的人就气候变化和转基因作物等议题吵翻了天,而另一群根本不知道伊拉克或乌克兰在哪儿的人,极力主张要对这些地区采取行动。人们很少发觉自己的无知,因为他们会沉浸在一个高度同质性的环境中,其信念被不断自证与加强,鲜有相左之声。 — 尤瓦尔·赫拉利(《人类简史》作者)

曾看到一句很经典的话:当年,懂毛的去了台湾,懂老蒋的留在大陆,两个都懂的去了美国。

他只是辍学,并没有停止学习。

在人类学家玛格丽特·米德的论述里,人类文明最初的标志是“愈合的骨折股骨化石”——在远古时代,断了股骨的人,除非得到他人帮助,否则必死无疑,因为伤者不能打猎,也难逃野兽伤害。

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Weekly Reading Summary: Aug. 03-Aug. 09, 2020

The Economist [Fri, 24 Jul 2020]
Farmers say crops tell the story: if you see cotton, it’s the south; if wheat, the west. Only when gazing on great expanses of corn or soyabean are you in the Midwest.

A report last September by a group of mayors noted that 86% of Americans live in metro areas, producing 91% of national income.

The best-run cities of America’s Midwest offer lessons in recovery
– If a town centre is an attractive place to live, work and play—with renovated bike paths, lots of parks, restaurants and nightlife—that draws young graduates, the newly retired and more.
– Cities also do well when they tap their own resources, or local social capital, instead of hoping for federal help or for a one-off giant investor who, with enough subsidies, will come in as a saviour.
– Another lesson is that the most successful places bet on “eds and meds”. Cities with a decent university or an expansive hospital system (often the two go together) reliably outperform others.
– cities with the deepest pools of talented workers tend to be long-term winners.
– Investing in its people is, ultimately, the Midwest’s greatest strength

One insight: rather than luring investors with incentives, cities should just create appealing living conditions. A second: cities have more assets than they realise. Public land can be exploited to raise funds for redevelopment and better public transport.

Average life expectancy, at 60 years, is decades less than in richer places. Violence is partly to blame. On May 31st 18 people were murdered in Chicago, its bloodiest day in six decades. Yet Melvin, a barber, won’t blame those in Englewood. “Once you got torn down neighbourhoods, abandoned buildings, drug infested, guns, then you know these kids, they’re vulnerable.” Many homes, shops and churches have been boarded up for years. A Whole Foods supermarket opened in 2016, but is mostly used by commuters who pull in from a motorway. Chicago can feel almost as segregated as South Africa just after apartheid. The common story of Bronzeville and Englewood is of slow-motion ejection of African-Americans. The mostly white, Hispanic and Asian populations north of Chicago are flourishing. But black residents are flocking out. The black population in the city has shrunk by nearly 290,000 this century. People go to suburbs, to Indiana or, in a “reverse great migration”, back south. The census this year is likely to show, for the first time, more Hispanics than African-Americans in Chicago.

“How can you provide a middle-class way of life if the jobs are serving omelettes in a restaurant?”

Training does not have to mean four-year degrees. Instead what is needed are vocational skills that can be taught simultaneously by companies and colleges.

The bulk of our success is in advanced manufacturing, in family-owned, mid-sized firms in their third or fourth generation of ownership, just like in Germany.”

TO BUILD A great city is simple, the politician Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said. First create a university, then wait 200 years. They in turn spread prosperity, in three ways. One is to bring in young people, often a city-sized population. Second, universities pool employable talent. Third, universities can refocus a city’s economy.

On average, 32% of Americans (25 or older) have at least a bachelor’s degree.

The average age of cars on American roads has approached almost 12 years, and around a quarter are at least 16 years old, according to IHS Markit.

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Weekly Reading Summary: June 22-June 28, 2020

The Economist [Fri, 12 Jun 2020]
As a rule, someone whose failings were subordinate to their claim to greatness should stay, whereas someone whose main contribution to history was baleful should go.

By 2016 more than a fifth of humankind was living in cities of 1m people or more. The largest 300 metropolitan areas now generate half the world’s GDP and two-thirds of that GDP’s growth.

Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard University, has shown that urban density increases workers’ productivity and minimises their carbon footprints.

The Economist [Fri, 05 Jun 2020]
The army kills its enemies. Police are supposed to serve and protect Americans without violating their civil rights—and to face consequences for violating those rights.

if today’s protests slide into persistent rioting, as in 1968 after Martin Luther King’s assassination, the harm they cause could be felt most keenly in African-American districts. Those people who can leave will. The left-behind will be worse off, as home values plunge and jobs and shops disappear. The police may withdraw, leading to an increase in crime, which in turn may eventually bring more violent policing. The scars will be visible for decades.

In a presidential election, fear often beats idealism. Law and order helped Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey in 1968. It could work again.

The Economist [Fri, 29 May 2020]
it seems likely that infection by people who have not, or not yet, developed symptoms accounts for about a third to a half of cases.

East Asian countries’ success in controlling the disease argues in favour of masks. In many of their cities, masks have been worn for years to protect against pollution or disease, so people covered their faces as soon as they got wind of covid-19. In the West mask-wearing is alien. And in all of the countries where mask-wearing is common practice, the epidemic was swiftly suppressed.

地摊经济:

“地摊经济”是“全民创业”降维概念和运动,这是有违经济和市场规律的。我作为一名创业者,深知创业成功概率有多大,以及创业需要多大的付出和伴随的副作用有多大。摆地摊只可以起到行为和情绪的纾困,换句话说是一剂安慰剂。

从地摊经济运动,想起一则经济学法则:拇指法则(Rule of thumb)。它的经济学解释是:“拇指规则”是指经济决策者对信息的处理方式不是按照理性预期的方式,把所有获得的信息都引入到决策模型中,他们往往遵循的是:只考虑重要信息,而忽略掉其他信息。管理学,经济学和教育学中经常把“拇指规则”引申为一种试探法、经验法、启发法(heuristics)。

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Weekly Reading Summary: May 11-May 17, 2020

Chinese feel insecure, so everyone try to deposit:

The Economist [Fri, 08 May 2020]: The lowest tenth of income earners in most countries often have no savings. In China they put aside roughly 20% of their earnings, an exceptionally high rate. One reason is that Chinese worry about having to provide for themselves in bad times. A stronger social safety-net would free people to spend more.

橡树资本:

橡树资本马克斯的三大利器:
1,时刻将风险控制置于首位。在他看来,真正的风险是亏本或者收益过低的可能性,而非一般人认为的价格波动。
2,以防御性投资为重,尽可能避免损失,这比争取高收益更加重要。橡树资本对任何一家公司的投资额不会超过总资产5%,而且投资优先债务、银行贷款等拥有强大追索权的债务。
3,极力避免杠杆的实用,因为杠杆意味着风险的放大,甚至导致资产永久损失的可能。

人人都能看到的市场机会稍纵即逝,普通投资者即便能抓到,也是收益寥寥。获利潜力最大的投资,是反其道行之: 在市场冷落时买入,在市场追捧时卖出。一旦市场预期发生变化,就能斩获巨大的利润 (防疫物资的事情,就是这样啊,深有感触)。

择股不择时,是马克斯的另一个重要的投资理念。完全依赖预测的投资是不靠谱的,因为经济学家往往根据历史表现做出推演,却无法预知意外事件的发生,更无法准确估计市场反应。马克斯不否认一两次准确预测的价值,但长期都保持准确预测的例子几乎没有。马克斯深信:持续且一致的优异表现只来源于对企业和个股拥有的专业认识,而非来自对宏观经济、利率走势或大盘点位的预测。深谙经济预测的局限性,马克斯在宏观分析上坚持采用周期性的视角。

在马克斯看来,一个完整的信贷周期有四个阶段:债务积累(投资环境好,债券发行量往往激增,但发行质量下降)-债务危机-衰退期-复苏期。最糟糕的事情不是经历市场波动或者盯盘带来的账面损失,而是在市场下跌到底部时将资产卖出。

投资者的合理预期应该是,我在市场上涨时买进,在继续上涨时买的越来越少,接着在市场下跌时,我再继续买进更多,然后我将长期持有。

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