Want 3M 1860 Masks? Be careful, you might dealing with scammers!

I run a company in China, specialized in apparel OEM and apparel stocklots business. However:
1) At the beginning of this year, China factories can not run;
2) Then later, buyers cancel orders and no new orders come in.
Therefore, we are forced to supply PPEs. Many Chinese clothes factories change to produce masks, so we can source from them easily. We firstly supply masks, and then supply other products, including Hand Sanitizers and Bottles, Protective Clothes/Gowns, Protective Gloves, Protective Medical Goggles (high quality goggles, can also use as ski goggles), Hospital Beds,Isolation Chamber, Sanitary Wipe, Infrared Thermometer, Disinfection Tunnel, Non Woven Fabric For Mask.

3M standards for good quality, and many buyers want to source 3M masks from China. We are able to supply 3M 9001/9002/9501/9502, but can NOT supply 3M 1860.

Recently one of our client contacted us for 3M 1860, and the order is real. We had an investigation on the supply chain. I am fully responsible for the information provide below:

  •  All 3M medical masks are under Chinese Government control, including 1860, 3M only supply to China Government, this is directly from my connection in 3M China.
  •  There are many brokers in China, saying that they have connections with 3M management officials, or with connections with big China State companies, so they can get the products. All are scammers!
  •  I talked with one broker, to know how they run the business, and was told 1 billion pcs can be ready within 7 days, sign contract with 3M and 3M will prepare the products from various warehouses all around the world. This could be ridiculous!
  •  I also checked with my friend who work at China Customs, they have data on how many exports of 3M, the information is very very few 1860 shipped out of China;
  • I was also told by the 3M China connection that there is no inventory at all. Not to mention 1 billion, even if 1 million pcs, delivery time is next year, if we place order now.

However, seems the broker is really working hard, he provided me the “Customs Declaration Form of Imported Goods” document, which should be issued by the China Customs and shows they have helped one Chinese company imported 50 million pcs 3M 1860 into China, as below, seems it is authentic, but there is one problem. If you can not find the tell-tale, contact me, I will advise.

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Weekly Reading Summary: May 11-May 17, 2020

Chinese feel insecure, so everyone try to deposit:

The Economist [Fri, 08 May 2020]: The lowest tenth of income earners in most countries often have no savings. In China they put aside roughly 20% of their earnings, an exceptionally high rate. One reason is that Chinese worry about having to provide for themselves in bad times. A stronger social safety-net would free people to spend more.

橡树资本:

橡树资本马克斯的三大利器:
1,时刻将风险控制置于首位。在他看来,真正的风险是亏本或者收益过低的可能性,而非一般人认为的价格波动。
2,以防御性投资为重,尽可能避免损失,这比争取高收益更加重要。橡树资本对任何一家公司的投资额不会超过总资产5%,而且投资优先债务、银行贷款等拥有强大追索权的债务。
3,极力避免杠杆的实用,因为杠杆意味着风险的放大,甚至导致资产永久损失的可能。

人人都能看到的市场机会稍纵即逝,普通投资者即便能抓到,也是收益寥寥。获利潜力最大的投资,是反其道行之: 在市场冷落时买入,在市场追捧时卖出。一旦市场预期发生变化,就能斩获巨大的利润 (防疫物资的事情,就是这样啊,深有感触)。

择股不择时,是马克斯的另一个重要的投资理念。完全依赖预测的投资是不靠谱的,因为经济学家往往根据历史表现做出推演,却无法预知意外事件的发生,更无法准确估计市场反应。马克斯不否认一两次准确预测的价值,但长期都保持准确预测的例子几乎没有。马克斯深信:持续且一致的优异表现只来源于对企业和个股拥有的专业认识,而非来自对宏观经济、利率走势或大盘点位的预测。深谙经济预测的局限性,马克斯在宏观分析上坚持采用周期性的视角。

在马克斯看来,一个完整的信贷周期有四个阶段:债务积累(投资环境好,债券发行量往往激增,但发行质量下降)-债务危机-衰退期-复苏期。最糟糕的事情不是经历市场波动或者盯盘带来的账面损失,而是在市场下跌到底部时将资产卖出。

投资者的合理预期应该是,我在市场上涨时买进,在继续上涨时买的越来越少,接着在市场下跌时,我再继续买进更多,然后我将长期持有。

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