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China emerging EV market is booming, but under Reshuffle

On this year’s China National Day, Oct. 1st, the first day for announcement of new car handover quantities in September, Wang Xing, founder of Meituan, a Grubhub like company, and an investor in Lixiang Electric Vehicle (EV), improvised a comment on the sales performance of the EVs in his Wechat friend circle: “In the past two to three decades, the leader of the Chinese premium high-end car market has been the German BBA (BMW, BENZ, AUDI), but the next two to three years will depend on ‘LiWeiHua'(Lixiang, Weilai, Huawei, new Chinese EV companies),. No matter which one wins, China will win.”

In fact, as the major new EV brands have announced their September and third quarter sales, the industry competition has intensified while the reshuffling effect between different brands has emerged.

Among them, BYD, which sold more cars for two consecutive quarters than Tesla, is expected to sit on the throne of the world’s first this year. While the new EV makers are facing the car giant’s “pro-son” competition.

Under the big reshuffle, the old players fall behind, new players to rebound, the industry market is not yet determined, especially under the new EV makers fluctuating production capacity, the whole market situation becomes more confusing.

1, Ranking keeps changing: the numbers

The Giants:

The Mid-Class EV Brands:

The Price Competitive Brands

Giving regard to Chinese government policy and the changing market, the battle for the Chinese EV industry is in full swing, but the market has not yet completed its final screening as the handover amount is fluctuating. Standing in the last quarter of 2022, when Xiaomi car has not yet started mass production, Huawei has not yet built a car under its name, and Apple’s car has not yet made an official announcement, the chances for the later comers become smaller and smaller.

02, Tesla is under high pressure

In the second quarter of this year, when BYD overtook Tesla for the first time as the world’s No. 1 electric vehicle supplier, many analysts attributed this primarily to production capacity limitations caused by Covid-19 controls in Shanghai. But the recently announced third quarter sales further validate BYD’s growth potential, while Tesla blamed logistical constraints for less-than-expected deliveries.

The day after Tesla’s deliveries were announced on Oct. 3, U.S. time, its shares plunged more than 8 percent. Its third-quarter car deliveries of 343,800 units fell short of market expectations of 357,900 units, and by the close of trading on Friday, Oct. 7, Tesla had accumulated a three-day decline of about 16 percent, its worst one-week performance since March 2020.

Since the global popularity of electric vehicles began, Tesla has almost always sat at the top, but in the second quarter of this year, the market situation began to change, BYD overtook Tesla for the first time to become the world’s number one electric car manufacturer, and after entering the third quarter, the gap between the two is rapidly expanding.

BYD’s development is really amazing. Just two years ago, its annual sales were only 190,000 units, while Tesla’s sales were up to 500,000 units, BYD is less than half of Tesla’s sales. In year 2021, BYD sales tripled to 604,000 units, Tesla sales also grew to 936,000 units, BYD and Tesla still have a gap, but it has reached 2/3 of Tesla’s sales. After 2022, BYD quickly narrowed the gap with Tesla, and in the second quarter successfully topped, and now the sales gap between the two is further widened.

It may seem unexpected, but it actually makes sense.

This has a lot to do with China’s new energy vehicle sales market explosion, data show that the first half of this year, global sales of new energy vehicles is more than 4.22 million units, of which China’s sales is up to 2.6 million units, accounting for more than 60%.

A significant problem for Tesla is that it has limited models. There are totally 4 models on sale on Tesla offical website: model 3, model Y, model X, model S. The model 3 and model Y accounted for a whopping 95% of the 343,800 electric vehicles sold in the third quarter of this year, which were released in 2016 and 2019, respectively.

In comparison, BYD’s product line is much wider, with different cars in its Dynasty series and Ocean series covering different prices from 100,000 to 300,000 yuan (USD13,906-USD41,718), with the cheapest Yuan Pro starting at less than 100,000 yuan (USD13,906), while Han and Tang models are priced upwards to more than 300,000 yuan (USD41,718).

In addition, Tesla’s main use of ternary lithium batteries are said to be not safe enough, repeated safety accidents seems to have reduced consumer trust, especially not long ago Lin Zhiying, a Taiwan Star, had an accident while driving Tesla. “Now who dares to buy a Tesla, I always try to keep a safe distance with Tesla on the road.” A new energy taxi driver spat.

On 2022 World Power Battery Conference, Professor Sun Jinhua from the University of Science and Technology of China has revealed a set of data: In year 2021, the national electric vehicle fire accidents is more than 3,000 cases, of which 60% were caused by ternary lithium battery models, while only 5% of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

On the other hand, BYD has been making a lot of moves, and its ambition to compete for global new energy vehicle supremacy has been put on the table. First, in March, it officially stopped the production and sales of fuel vehicles and focused on developing BEVs (pure electric vehicles) and PHEVs, and then, just this past September, it announced its official entry into the European market, where it released three models, Han, Tang and Yuan.

According to the current sales situation, BYD is quite close to the annual sales target of 1.5 million units, and in the 4th quarter of this year, BYD is expected to hit a higher sales target.

But it should be noted that the BYD era of electric vehicles has not really arrived, in the BYD delivery of new energy vehicles, hybrid models and pure electric models are still half each, and the former is mostly considered a transitional model of the new energy era. Pure electric is the real EV.

In addition, from the point of view of profitability, Tesla is still the king of the current market. Although BYD is a cut above Tesla in overall sales, the revenue and profit level is still a gap with Tesla because the main models are basically below 300,000 yuan (USD41,718).

No doubt, for the two giants, the battle is still in the beginning stage, the further competition in the field of pure electricity will continue.

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Why do clothing brands sell at a higher price compared to non-brand?

I have worked in the clothing export field for 21 years and know something about clothing manufacturing.

1, If the clothing is blank, without labels, hangtags, printing, embroidery, or packing, the quality between brand and non-brand clothing is almost the same, if the factory produces under the same standard.

By mentioning the same standard, I mean the following:

1), control the fabric color of each dying jar:

No alt text provided for this image

A dyeing jar can dye 800 kg of fabrics. If the fabric is jersey, it can produce about 2,400 pcs of t-shirts. And if the order quantity is greater than this quantity per color, more dyeing jars are required, and the fabric mill needs to control colors even if they are the same color. There are tens of colors for most people, but there are thousands of colors in the clothing field. We use Pantone Color Code rather than saying black/white… to mention color.

2), Use good quality sewing threads. Different quality threads lead to different sewing qualities.

3), Control needles per inch, and use a good sewing machine.

4), Use skilled sewing workers.

Brands generally have very detailed and strict standards on the above, and therefore, brands can keep products at the same quality level.

2, On the labels, hangtags, printing/embroidery, or packing:

Let us talk about facts:

1) Labels:

No alt text provided for this image

This is the label of brand Polo Ralph Lauren, it uses fine quality woven labels and even used QR code labels (unique labels to check authenticity).

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Weekly Reading Summary: Nov.23-Nov.29, 2020

– 卡通剧《辛普森家庭》

– 马德

– 顾城

我们的 Covid-19 疫苗研究,没有要政府的钱。因为那些钱是附带条件的,你必须不断报告进展。
– 辉瑞公司 CEO


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忆古思今 | 西门庆的一泡尿和郭德纲的女人




这西门大官人席间饮酒过多,如厕时遇一男子,低头一看,甚是惊奇,连声嚷叫:Small! Too Small! 神态嚣张至极!



1, 京畿重地,乃是食肉者的天下


2, 切莫以己之长笑他人之短。尤其是在人人都在意的地方





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Weekly Reading Summary: Nov.16-Nov.22, 2020

  • 没有什么川粉,挺他只是想看他揍那些我想揍又不敢揍的人。 —网易网友
  • 为什么许多人对新冠病毒在全世界造成的大量死亡感到麻木,因为对于我们大多数人来说,这场疫情的最惨痛经历是目击不到的。 -BBC

  • 我来到推特以后,才发现不管怎么沟通,一半人总是会讨厌另一半人。 -迈克尔·阿灵顿 (TechCrunch 创始人)

  • 商人在理论上不如经济学教授,但是他的观念往往有事实根据,并且也肯用全部的意识使其实现;反之,经济学教授对于现实的观念往往不正确,他的理论很多,但是缺乏实现的能力和勇气。结果,发财的都是商人,而不是教授。 – 德国二战元帅隆美尔

  • 随着消费者对信息的了解越来越容易、越来越多,企业应该将大量的精力、注意力和金钱投入到构建优质的产品或服务中,而将更少的精力投入到产品或服务的营销中。- 杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)

  • 日本和中国的经验里,老年能组团结伴照料的都是女性,而无男性。男性几乎天然不会产生独身主义想法,他们之间可以形成同生共死的战斗友情,但日常陪伴照料式的关系,几乎一天也不能维系。女性较能抵抗老年独身,而男性绝无可能。你可以看到女性主张不婚不育保平安,却看不到任何男性反对婚育。 -网文

  • The Economist Nov. 14, 2020

    • America will stop treating the European Union as a “foe” on trade, or its own forces stationed in South Korea as a protection racket.
    • For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub NINE LONG years elapsed between the isolation of the measles virus in 1954 and the licensing of a vaccine. The world waited for 20 years between early trials of a polio vaccine and the first American licence in 1955. (大禹:所以说,科技的进步,真的是造福人类的。)
    • The 2.2m Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs, as they are typically known) are feted nationally for their sacrifices. Nearly half toil in Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states as maids, drivers or hotel staff. All hotel bands in China seem to have a Filipina singer. Hong Kong has more than 150,000 OFWs and Singapore 120,000, most of them women working as domestic helpers and nannies. Central Hong Kong on a Sunday is like the Philippines writ small: a pavement map of the country’s many languages as Filipinas gather with friends from their region.In all, the diaspora sends home $30bn a year, a tenth of GDP.(大禹:菲佣是菲律宾的重要产业,甚至是支柱产业。)
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  • 11月9日,辉瑞与合作伙伴BioNTech联合宣布:根据3期临床研究的外部独立数据监测委员会(DMC)于2020年11月8日进行的第一次中期疗效分析,在没有新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)感染证据的受试者中,其基于mRNA的新冠疫苗BNT162b2证明了预防新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的有效性:有效率超过90%。这一数据远高于美国FDA要求的50%以上即可获批上市。双方计划在达到所需的安全里程碑后,尽快向美国FDA提交紧急使用授权(EUA)申请。
  • 美国生物科技企业莫德纳(Moderna)11月16日宣布,由该公司研发的新冠肺炎三期试验疫苗mRNA-1273有效性为94.5%。计划在未来几周内向美国申请新冠疫苗的紧急使用权,同时也向其他全球监管机构提交新冠疫苗以获得授权;
  • mRNA疫苗无成功先例,今后灭活疫苗有可能会被完全淘汰,mRNA疫苗生产太方便了

背景知识: 灭活等疫苗VS mRNA疫苗

  • 灭活疫苗,这是最传统的疫苗,包括减毒疫苗、灭活疫苗和裂解疫苗。

    • 所谓的减毒疫苗就是把病原体打残了再用;
    • 所谓的灭活疫苗就是把病原体打死了再用;
    • 所谓的裂解疫苗就是把病原体碎尸万段后再用。
    • 虽然经过了各种特殊的灭活处理,导致其致病性下降或丧失,但仍保持了病毒全部或部分免疫原性,接种后病毒抗原可以刺激机体产生免疫应答,达到保护作用。
    • 这种类型的疫苗,工艺制作较为简单,是传统的疫苗制备方式。但是由于对新冠病毒的致病机理和免疫学机制的研究尚不深入,所以灭活后的疫苗仍然可能携带有害成分;而且目前活病毒培养要求在P3级生物安全条件下进行,产能会受到限制。
  • 核酸疫苗,包括DNA疫苗和mRNA疫苗。

    • DNA疫苗:把病原体的蛋蛋直接活生生打入人体。灭活疫苗可以说是最[笨]的方法,但也可以说是作为兜底的策略,灭活疫苗的缺点是接种次数较多(通常需要2~3剂),但灭活疫苗的技术是最成熟的,这也是我看好国药灭活疫苗的原因。
    • mRNA疫苗:把病原体的小蝌蚪原细胞活生生打入人体。mRNA(信使RNA)就像一个携带着细胞用来合成不同蛋白质的模板。在人类细胞内,根据DNA内的遗传信息制造蛋白质需要两个主要步骤。首先,在细胞核中,DNA编码的信息转录到mRNA上。mRNA从细胞核移动至细胞质,核糖体将其翻译成蛋白质,从而发挥对细胞和组织的功能。与传统疫苗直接引入抗原蛋白刺激宿主免疫应答不同,mRNA疫苗引入编码疾病特异性抗原的mRNA,利用宿主细胞的蛋白质合成机制产生抗原,从而触发免疫应答。在体内,这些外来抗原的产生为免疫系统识别和记忆这种病毒抗原做好了准备,可以抵御未来由相同抗原引起的病毒感染。

    • mRNA疫苗最大的优点就是可以快速制备,安全性较好。这种疫苗的主要缺点,是在运输递送过程中容易出现降解而失效,所以防止降解是关键。

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1, “什么是RCEP”

全面区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(英语:Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,简称:RCEP),是由东南亚国家联盟十国发起,由中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等与东盟有自由贸易协议的六国共同参加,共计16个国家所构成的高级自由贸易协定。此协议也向其他外部经济体开放,比如中亚国家、南亚及大洋洲其他国家。2019年11月4日,谈判完成,但印度中途退出。2020年11月15日,15个RCEP缔约方正式签署协议。



2, “为什么RCEP引人关注?”


RCEP重要性 | 图片来源:环球时报 | 翻译整理:大禹(原资料为英文)

3, “RCEP的内容?”

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Weekly Reading Summary: Nov.09-Nov.15, 2020


苹果公司不允许恶棍在电影中使用 iPhone。因此,如果您正在看一部新电影并且角色拥有 iPhone,那么他们就不是坏人,这算是剧透吗?
– 《苹果和流行文化》

那些貌似陈陋不堪的“礼“,包含着宗法亲缘,包含着思念和孝悌。那几张黄纸,那一摊烬余,可能是我们沟通阴阳,遥寄思念最好的方式。 —网文,谈祭奠烧纸

生命是一袭华美的袍,爬满了虱子。 -张爱玲

每个人都是月亮,总有一个阴暗面,从来不让人看见。 -马克-吐温

丰田公司的一个决策原则是,做决定的不是等级最高的人,而是最接近正在发生的事情的人。丰田公司认为,决策时掌握的实践知识越多,决策就会越好。 –《丰田之道》

快能力与慢能力: 美国著名投资家芒格(Charles Munger)是巴菲特的合伙人,以投资思想丰富而著称。


如果你想成为一流的网球运动员,你很快就会发现,这是没有希望的。 但是,如果你想成为一流的水暖工,那么大部分人都可以做到。只要具有意志,坚持下去了解这个行业,精通手艺,假以时日,这是可以实现的目标。


芒格的意思是,普通人当不了职业的网球运动员,主要原因是体育竞争力无法慢慢积累,你必须在很短的时间内(三四年?),就达到一个很高的竞技水平,这种模式更像冲刺。 但是,水暖工不需要冲刺,你只要持之以恒,水平自然就会提升。20年以后,你肯定是一个优秀的水暖工。





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